Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
